Monday, August 4, 2014

Smart Energy Strategies

Smart Energy Strategies
Dr. KRS Murthy
CEO
I3 World
(408)-464-3333
Mr. Shreedhar Kadur
President, i3 Energy
                                        +91-879-255-8986

Current Solar installations in the World

1. Solar Energy Conversion Efficiency - Very Poor – Below 15%
2. Land required per MW – 6 acres  to 10 acres -Too much
3. Horizon to Horizon Power Production in a Day: Low during sun rise and sun set; Peaks only during noon; uneven power throughout the day
4. The specified power is only during mid for one hour or less
5. Rest of the day from sunrise to 11 AM - starts with 5 % or less at 30 minutes or 1 hour after sunrise of the specified power ("peak power") increasing only 10% per hour.
6. Rest of the day from 1 PM to sunset: decreases from the specified peak to zero at 10 % per hour
7. Over 12 months of the year: Specified peak only one day of the year.
8. All other days, weeks or months: only 60% to 90% of the specified peak

Our Solution Advantage

•Cheaper per MW or multi mega watt farm
•Better in output profile in a day, with flat output compared to all in the solar industry with a bell curve profile and only one hour of the specified peak
•Better in total power output in a year - Our solution produces 70 percent more output for the same specified 1 MWp compared to all in the solar industry.
•Better in scaling up
•Better in total installation speed

Gujarat Solar Project

•This 590 MW "Solar Park" is located at village Charanka, District Patan in Gujarat
•Spread across 5,384 acres of unused land. 
•This is Rs 4500 Crore divided by 590 MW = Rs 7.63 Crores per MW
Murthy:
•This is about 9 acres per MW.
•This is the most inefficient use of the land in the solar history.
•It is 20 year old and most inefficient art and surely NOT state of the art) 
•Crystalline mono or poly solar needs 6 acres MW. 
•I3 technology requires less than 2 acres per MW. 
•Look at the ratio of inefficiency. 9:6:2
Gujarat Solar Park Stats
           I3 Technology Comparison in BOLD
•LOCATION : Charanka Village, Patan, Gujarat
•AREA : +2000 hac. ( approx 4900 acres ) - versus 1088 Acres
•PLANT CAPACITY : +500 MW (on completion) versus 2500 MW in the same land
•DEVELOPERS/COMPANIES INVOLVED : 17 versus We are OK with multiple contractor developers
•PROJECT COST : We are price competitive
•We could install 500 MW in less than a year

Comparison List

•Our technology costs less per MW
•Takes less time installation
•Our technology would have provided 2450 MW, which is more than FOUR TIMES the output)
•Produces about 70 % more electricity per MW of solar installation
•Produces close to flat output from sunrise to sunset
•In comparison, this Gujarat installation produces
–A bell curve shaped put from sunrise to sunset
–Starting from zero output slowly increasing along that bell curve
–Peaking at noon
–Further declining to zero along the other side of the bell curve. 
–To clarify, the bell curve power production of this Gujarat installation produces to specified 590 MW:
•Only for one hour or less in a day,
•And not on all days of the year
•But only one day in the summer
•And NOT on Gujarat land
•But only if it were installed on the equator

Cost and Savings in Scaling Up

•Total cost is in the range of Rs. 6.5 Crores and Rs 7.0 Crores
•Total cost will be lower on a per MWp basis for larger farms,
•Example: 1MWp to 10 MWp to 50 MWp to 100 MWp the overall cost savings include many parameters.
•Every step increase in the size of the solar farm in the above example, the overall savings can be from 5% to 8%
•It is also important to compare the following:
–Total land required per MWp
–Speed of installation
–Total power output in a year for a given location
–The power production profile in a day (diurnal variation or diurnal profile)
–Seasonal variations
–Cost of operation and maintenance

I3 Solar Advantage – 10MW Example

•The total solar power production from our solution is 70% more compared to all in the industry.
•Therefore our equivalent price based on annual power production cost, with an example that our solution conservatively produces only 70% more output per year:
•Rs 75 Crores Divided by 1.7 = Our equivalent price Rs 44 Crore, far lower than any company in the solar industry.
•Another perspective on total PPA revenue per year:
•13 M units for competitors Versus 22 M units for i3
•At Rs 10 per unit:
•Rs 130 M = Rs 13 Crore Versus Rs 220 M = Rs 22 Crore
•Great advantage in Return on Investment (ROI)

Cost Break Down

•Cost break down of a 10 MWp solar example.
•This is ONLY an example.
•Each farm location requires a visit to provide a detailed and definitive price quote.
•Our general labor and technical labor rates for transportation, logistics, civil works and trained panel installation etc cost estimates are based on USA rates.
•The total estimate for Indian labor and technically trained installation team could be lower once we do a solar farm site visit.
•The labor rates in C and D level cities in India could also reduce the cost estimate further.

Important Assumptions and Exclusions

•The capital expenditure (capex) of a 1 MWp solar farm solution without batteries
•Has the hooks to be grid tied, with a transformer output at the perimeter of the solar farm.
•Does NOT include lateral grid - tie high tension wires
•Does NOT include right of way from the solar farm to the nearest electrical grid substation, that can accept 1 MWp
•For larger solar installations, the lateral high tension wires to the closest substation may be many kilometers, with high cost & time to obtain all needed right of way from farmers, who are probably individual farmers with small lands. 

Solar Cell Manufacturing Pricing

•Here are the details of the solar cell manufacturing factory, turnkey services for high efficiency solar cells
•Annual Production of the Cell Factory - 80 MW - Three Shifts
•Turn Key Services:
–All aspects from building layout
–Power, water and other utility planning and hook up
–Equipment set up
–Production line connections and set up
–Recruitment and training of the employees, supervisors, managers and executives
–One year of operation of the factory
•All materials and other supply chain services
•All Incoming Inspection Services
•Planning for Inventory Management Services
•Operation and Maintenance
•Total Price of the Solar Cell Manufacturing Factory Turnkey - $25 M

Solar Cell Factory Payment Terms

•All payments are in advance
•Escrow of $1 M set aside upon initial interest for our services
•Payment $200,000 for site visit, site survey, initial planning
•At contract signing: 20% of the total
•Before we get the equipment ready for shipping: 60% of the total
•After the equipment arrives at the installation site: 10% of the total
•After completion of the factory set and the first line of cells come out for a week - Remaining of the total price

Not Included in Solar Cell Estimate

1.Cost of the building
2.Import duties
3.Local / domestic taxes
4.Any pay off to government decision makers
5.Cost of land
6.Land acquisitions process costs
7.Land preparation
8.Land grading
9.Any parking etc. outside the factory building
10.Employee and management salary and benefits
11.Cost of all supplies to produce the solar cells

Contract Details Matter

•It is important to compare different costs / budgets or prices line by line, to include all included and not included. 
•The cost and breakdown and any variation depends on the local labor, transportation and other logistics costs.
•Cost of land is NOT included.

Cost and Savings in Scaling Up

•Total cost is in the range of Rs. 6.5 Crores and Rs 7.0 Crores
•Total cost will be lower on a per MWp basis for larger farms,
•Example: 1MWp to 10 MWp to 50 MWp to 100 MWp the overall cost savings include many parameters.
•Every step increase in the size of the solar farm in the above example, the overall savings can be from 5% to 8%
•It is also important to compare the following:
–Total land required per MWp
–Speed of installation
–Total power output in a year for a given location
–The power production profile in a day (diurnal variation or diurnal profile)
–Seasonal variations
–Cost of operation and maintenance